Gasoline and diesel price forecast, December 2022 edition

Unlike the previous months when the expected tendency was of declining prices, now the expectation has shifted to a gradual increase in prices over time. The primary reason is that prices have already declined somewhat.

This month we continued to tighten the spread between the low and high scenarios as the markets are calmer and large volatility is less likely. Still, looking a few months ahead, prices may increase quite a bit when China relaxes the zero covid policy and the central banks pivot away from raising interest rates. The low scenario is less likely compared to the high scenario but it cannot be ruled out. The world economy and, respectively, oil demand may deteriorate significantly in 2023.

One thing to note is that the percent difference between the actual and predicted diesel prices for November is a bit higher than normal and almost uniformly negative across countries. That means that diesel prices are now higher by a few percentage points than what can be expected given the actual oil prices and exchange rates. The same is not observed for gasoline prices where the difference between actual and expected prices is small. In other words, the market for diesel is tight.

The impending ban on the sale of oil and later on oil distillates from Russia by the EU probably has something to do with that. Our reading of the situation, however, is that the ban would have a short-lived impact on prices. Countries in the EU have been increasing their stored volumes of oil and seem to be close to being independent of Russian seaborne oil. The dependency on diesel fuel is still there (and it is significant) but that ban is not due to take effect until February which gives more time to adjust. Overall, there would be substantial internal political pressure to secure fuel supplies before a ban is implemented. EU policymakers do not want to disrupt transportation or/and to contribute to inflation by raising fuel cost.

The wild card in all that is Russia. If Russia decides to cut diesel sales to Europe ahead of and in anticipation of the ban, prices for diesel will increase substantially. That seems unlikely as Russia draws revenues from these sales and the market for diesel elsewhere is sluggish (China and India seem oversupplied given the zero covid policy in China) but it is not out of the question.

Countries
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ABD
Almanya
Andorra
Aruba
Avustralya
Avusturya
Belçika
Belize
Birleşik Krallık
Birmanya
Bosna Hersek
Brezilya
Bulgaristan
Cape Verde
Çek Cumhuriyeti
Çin
Denmark
Dominik Cumhuriyeti
El Salvador
Endonezya
Estonya
Fiji
Filipinler
Finlandiya
Fransa
Gana
Grenada
Guatemala
Güney Afrika
Güney Kore
Gürcistan
Hindistan
Hırvatistan
Honduras
Hong Kong
İrlanda
İspanya
İsrail
İsveç
İsviçre
İtalya
Jamaika
Japonya
Kamboçya
Kanada
Karadağ
Katar
Kenya
Kolombiya
Kosta Rika
Laos
Lesotho
Letonya
Litvanya
Lüksemburg
Macaristan
Makedonya
Malaysia
Mayotte
Meksika
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Nepal
Netherlands
Nikaragua
Norveç
Oman
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Panama
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Portekiz
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Şili
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Tanzanya
Tayland
Tayvan
Togo
Türkiye
Ukraine
Ürdün
Vietnam
Yeni Zelanda
Yunanistan
Кıbrıs
Gasoline
Diesel
About the forecasts

Our historical data tell us how fuel prices behave when oil prices, exchange rates, seasons, and other factors change. We use that information along with the most recent crude oil price forecasts to project fuel prices. The forecasts are published every month with predictions for the next 24 months. Here is a description of our methodology.

How to download forecasts

Select countries and fuel types to see the total cost. The forecasts are available for immediate download after payment.

What is included

Historical prices for 6 months and a forecast for 24 months starting in November 2022 (see the format). The fuel prices are for Octane-95 gasoline or the closest equivalent and regular diesel fuel. These are national average retail (pump) prices per liter of fuel (gallons for Canada and the U.S.) expressed in local currency.

Oil prices used in the forecast

We use three scenarios for medium (most likely), high and low future oil prices. These are based on the most recent crude oil price information from the U.S. EIA, the World Bank, the IEA, the NYMEX and multiple investment banks. See the exact oil prices used in the forecast.

Cost and delivery

The forecasts are available for immediate download after payment. The cost is 20 USD per country for each fuel or 30 USD for both fuels. Full refund within one week of payment if not satisfied. We offer discounts for larger purchases and subscriptions. Please contact us for details.

About us

We have tracked retail energy prices since 2012 including fuel prices, electricity prices and natural gas prices in over 150 countries. Our team of economists is headed by Neven Valev (Google Scholar, LinkedIn), a Ph.D. economist with extensive research experience. We provide data, forecasts, and consulting services to a wide range of clients.


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